Joe Lonsdale’s AI Framework
A Glassmorphism Deep Dive
$5T
Market Forecast (2033)
40%
AI Chip Growth (Y/Y)
10x
Productivity Gain
Tier 0
Energy Infrastructure
Powering the ecosystem. The “power plant”. Lowest risk exposure.
- “Selling water bottles”. Wins regardless of AI winner.
- CEG, VRT, XLU
Tier 1
Semiconductors
The “bricks and concrete”. Physical chips acting as the engine.
- Essential component; short supply. High volatility.
- NVDA, AMD, TSM
Tier 2
Data Centers
The “house”. Massive buildings where AI models live.
- REITs with long leases. Stable revenue, rate sensitive.
- EQIX, DLR, DTCR
Tier 3
Foundation Models
The “architects”. Core AI brains (ChatGPT, Gemini). Expensive.
- Only tech giants with massive cash flow can play here.
- GOOGL, MSFT, META
Tier 4
Software Infra
The “tool belt”. Software to deploy and manage AI.
- High competition. PLTR is unique via ontology.
- PLTR
Tier 5
THE PRIZE
AI Applications
The “furniture”. Useful products replacing jobs. Highest Risk/Reward.
- Best deals are Private (VC). Public options limited.
- SOND, ADBE, CRM
Tier 6
Traditional Companies
“Old houses getting renovated”. Existing companies using AI to boost margins.
- Lowest risk AI exposure. Enhancing already profitable businesses.
- ROK (Factory), WMT (Supply Chain), Banks
Portfolio Strategies
Conservative
Focus on stability and income.
Tiers 0, 2, 6
Balanced
Growth potential with reduced volatility.
Diversified (All Tiers)
Aggressive
Maximum growth, heavy Tier 5 exposure.
Tiers 1, 4, 5